Market Analysis

Decoding Market Signals # Financial news often references “yield inversion”—typically referring to the difference between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields. This metric attracts attention because when it turns negative (inverts), many interpret it as signaling economic contraction. Understanding this phenomenon requires exploring how bond markets function and what they tell us about economic expectations.

Prediction represents one of the most fascinating aspects of human cognition—our attempt to anticipate future developments based on incomplete information. Throughout my experience with forecasting across various domains, I’ve developed a deep appreciation for both the value and the limitations of predictive thinking. The Prediction Landscape: Successes and Challenges # My forecasting journey includes both successful predictions and notable misses. Among the more accurate assessments were recognizing the transformative potential of software and internet technologies since the 1990s, identifying the market opportunity represented by Airbnb, and appreciating Bitcoin’s disruptive potential. However, even with these successful predictions, timing proved challenging—particularly with cryptocurrency investments where directional accuracy didn’t always translate to optimal entry and exit points.