Investing

The year is 2025. I’m turning 40 soon, sitting in a cramped 450-square-foot apartment with thin walls, $50,000 in credit card debt, and a credit score of 646. My financial worth: $100 in liquid assets. My net worth: deeply negative. Five years ago, I was worth over $7 million. This isn’t a story about market crashes or economic downturns. This is a story about human fallibility—specifically, mine. If you’re looking for a cautionary tale about greed, overconfidence, and the psychological pitfalls of sudden wealth, welcome. I’ve lived it all so you don’t have to.

Beyond the Cautionary Tale: Survivorship Bias as Strategic Insight # Survivorship bias—our tendency to focus on successful outcomes while overlooking failures—typically enters conversations as a cautionary note. We’ve all witnessed this dynamic: someone celebrates a remarkable success story, only to have another person interject with the observation that “that’s just survivorship bias,” effectively suggesting we should discount the achievement as statistical noise rather than meaningful evidence.

Our lives unfold through sequences that blend pattern and randomness in fascinating ways. Consider something as mundane as daily walks along familiar routes—while the path itself remains consistent, the precise execution of each step represents an intricate dance of subtle variations that operate largely beneath conscious awareness. The Mathematics of Everyday Movement # These seemingly routine movements contain remarkable complexity when examined closely. If we could precisely measure the biomechanics of walking—foot placement, muscular force application, postural adjustments—we would discover statistical patterns with natural variability distributed across normal probability curves. This blend of consistency and variation characterizes many natural processes.

When Psychological Concepts Become Personal Shields # Many years ago, during the painful dissolution of my first serious relationship, I discovered how psychological terminology could transform from analytical tool into emotional armor. As my girlfriend cited a recent incident as justification for our separation—an event that has since faded in my memory—I responded with what seemed like intellectual sophistication. “You’re experiencing recency bias,” I explained with unwarranted confidence, suggesting she was overweighting a recent negative experience while unfairly discounting our substantial history of positive interactions.