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2022


My Worst Predictions

·7 mins
I’ve made my share of bad predictions. I’ve had plenty of good ones too. But being right often doesn’t matter, because few people will remember if you were right or wrong, and when it comes to placing bets on your predictions, timing is incredibly difficult to nail down. Some of my best predictions include my general bullishness on software and the internet since the 90s (when the dot-com bubble saw the NASDAQ rise over 400% from 1995-20001), betting on Airbnb (now valued at $86B+), and Bitcoin (up over 30,000% in the last decade). In the case of Bitcoin, I was right about the bet, but got the timing wrong. Bitcoin’s journey from $0.09 in 2010 to nearly $69,000 in November 2021 represents a staggering 76,000,000% return, making it the best-performing asset of the decade by orders of magnitude. For context, an investment of just $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 would have been worth over $76 million at its peak.

The Weird Story of Standard Oil

·6 mins
Once upon a time, the US government enforced antitrust legislation. One of the most famous examples of this is the case of Standard Oil, which remains the textbook example of monopoly breakup taught in economics and law schools worldwide. To understand what happened to Standard Oil, we need to take a short walk back in time through history. The year is 1890, and the US Congress is a well-functioning body with rational officials whose brains still function at a high enough level to pass sensible legislation.